A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
