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The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A packed stadium, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. A pitch invasion to symbolize the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

After defeating three home nations, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a Test.

A contemporary reporter almost blew a gasket. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly with considerable hope. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but clear signs that maybe one was not far off.

A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Five years after that, they beat them again. Three years further on, same story. Another five-year gap and, yes, you know the rest.

Modern Encounters

Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent.

During his tenure, Scotland's coach has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this is another level. This is 32 games across 120 years. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Team News

Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to closer margins in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Through their brilliance, their power, game management, they secure victory.

We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.

Missing Players

Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's a freak and had he been declared fit then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying.

During modern rugby early in matches, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations.

Replacement Concerns

They're without Huw Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with his club. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his international experience consists of limited game time.

Once Rae's shift ends, his replacement takes over. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class.

Strategic Decisions

The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Past Encounters

Against Ireland, New Zealand won the opening match of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They took an age to get going, despite numerical advantage, but their final surge secured victory.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

By the Numbers

For all that their blasts at the end, the last 20 minutes is not where New Zealand typically dominates. In all of their Tests going back three years, they've accumulated scores in the first half and 60 in the second half.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, 26 in the third and solid finishes. They come exploding out of the traps.

What Scotland Needs

Against Scotland in 2022, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Leading 14-0, victory seemed assured. Scotland fought back impressively to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The lesson here is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from the start - and keep it there.

In recent years, successful opponents have needed to score in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks.

Conclusion

Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then hopes fade. A yellow card? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? It's over.

With perfect execution? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Graham being Graham.

Fantasy rugby, perhaps. Consistent performance has been elusive from the Scottish team that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If it's in there, now is the moment; 120 years is enough of a wait.